PREdiCCt study published in Gut
Published on 20/01/2026
The first paper from the PREdiCCt study has been published in Gut, reporting new evidence that regular stool inflammation tests, combined with dietary information, may help identify people with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) who are at higher risk of future flares.
The study followed 2,629 people with Crohn’s disease or ulcerative colitis who reported being in remission when they joined. Participants were recruited from 47 NHS centres across the UK between 2016 and 2020 and were followed for a median of four years.
At the start of the study, participants completed a food-frequency questionnaire and provided clinical information, including blood tests and a stool test measuring faecal calprotectin, a marker of gut inflammation. They then completed monthly symptom questionnaires so the research team could track future flares.
Stool tests as an early warning signal
The study found that faecal calprotectin was a strong predictor of future disease activity, even when people felt well. Higher levels at baseline were linked to a much greater risk of later flares.
In ulcerative colitis, the chance of an objective flare within two years increased from around 11% in people with low calprotectin levels to 34% in those with high levels.
Diet and flare risk
The study also found that diet was linked to relapse risk in ulcerative colitis. People who consumed the most meat had around double the risk of an objective flare compared with those who ate the least.
This pattern was not seen in Crohn’s disease, and the study did not find consistent links between flares and fibre intake, ultra-processed foods, polyunsaturated fats or alcohol.
Because PREdiCCt is an observational study, it cannot prove that eating meat causes flares. However, the findings support future clinical trials to test whether reducing meat intake, alongside routine inflammation monitoring, could help prevent relapses in ulcerative colitis.
Towards more personalised IBD care
Professor Charlie Lees, Professor of Gastroenterology at the University of Edinburgh, said the study provides a new framework for IBD management: using objective biomarkers to detect subclinical inflammation early and identifying dietary factors that may help reduce the risk of relapse.
The work was led by University of Edinburgh researchers and involved nutrition researchers from the University of Aberdeen. It was funded by UK Research and Innovation, the Scottish Government’s Chief Scientist Office and Cure Crohn’s Colitis.